October 2022


A General Overview

I mentioned before how the start of schools marked the potential period of relative more freedom and much needed coming back to a very limited social life, which we had to put on hold.

Well sadly, as October started so did all the kids related diseases and illnesses, which meant even more sleepless nights and more kids at home being sick than at school. I guess I am starting to simply accept that this is going to be how life will pan out for the rest of my live, or at least until the kids are away from home or old enough to need less direct cares from us parents.

I am still fighting with this realization, but on the other side there is little point in getting upset, this is the way things are, I believe.

So yes, nothing major to report apart from my return to played football (a sport that it’s more of an addiction to me, considering that my right kneed is all busted and I should not even think of playing football at my age), which made me happy, and very little else.

Mila’s birthday was on the 1st of October, considering that she’s only 1 no major party was held, which is something I really like. Unfortunately I am not going to be that lucky when Leo turns 4 in December… A party will have to be organized then…

LH FUND

Explanation of terminology and graphs is HERE.

Let’s see the numbers:

MonthTRYTERNYYoCForex
31 Dec 20140.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
31 Dec 2015-3.33%1.22%-0.13%-1.00%
31 Dec 20167.06%1.14%1.16%-4.35%
31 Dec 20179.94%1.04%2.64%-5.94%
31 Dec 20183.28%1.24%2.70%-3.53%
31 Dec 201923.50%1.35%2.72%-1.40%
31 Dec 202015.76%1.28%2.70%-7.60%
31 Dec 202137.13%1.35%2.69%-2.05%
Jan 202235.83%1.34%2.61%-2.75%
Feb 202235.70%1.33%2.63%0.45%
Mar 202240.68%1.32%2.64%0.19%
Apr 202241.87%1.31%2.65%4.09%
May 202241.54%1.32%2.72%2.06%
Jun 202234.62%1.47%2.63%3.47%
Jul 202239.94%1.46%2.63%6.32%
Aug 202241.24%1.45%2.66%8.19%
Sep 202231.26%1.44%2.70%7.53%
Oct 202237.94%1.43%2.71%7.88%
LH Portfolio Milestones + Monthly current year

TR is decreasing (vs. previous month) – Ups and downs, this time is an up…

YTER is decreasing (vs. previous month) – 1bps, every little counts!

Net Yearly YoC is better (vs. previous month) – 1bps, mostly thanks to the decrease in YTER.

Forex is better (vs. previous month) – Still positive, and gaining pace again (apparently).

Dividends and Options

Income this month was 1261 Euro

Dividends accounted for 976 Euro (-29% vs 2021) and Options ended up with a 285 Euro score (+N.A.% vs 2021).

Dividends

Double digits DECREASE. This hurts, it was going to be a great year otherwise… Well, still pretty good but the record streak is broken here…

Options

Not bad at all, well above the 200 euro target that I’ve set for myself.

DCA/Increased Positions

Bought 50 BAMH @ 16.49

Price down, slowly adding to this Pref.

Bought 50 BIPH @ 15.30

Price down, slowly adding to this Pref.

Bought 50 BEPH @ 14.11

Price down, slowly adding to this Pref.

Bought 100 VZ @ 36.50

Got them through a PUT option that expired ITM, price was right and I’ve decided to let it be assigned. Verizon is a good company, now under pressure pretty much like all telephone companies.

Sold 300 BIT:BRE @ 10.55

Started rising some cash, in expectation of potential future market drops, trying to recreate some dry powder to use if the occasion arises.

New Positions – Sold Position

Nothing to report

Financial Conclusions

October was a rather great month for the financial markets, lot of positive or seemingly positive news arrived and with them a quite strong rebound of the indexes all over the world.

At the time of writing (in November), things are looking pretty good, we can say that there is a rally in place, maybe not strong as the post COVID action that we saw, but still pretty visible.

It seems to me that after much falling investors and traders are now switching to the other side of the spectrum, looking for anything remotely positive to get the stock to go up despite “all the rest”.

Oh yes, “all the rest”.

  • The war is still on, although now we talk a LOT less about it and a LOT more about the falling gas prices at the Amsterdam stock market.
  • Yes gas, Europe is fully stocked and ready to go, prices are coming down from the lofty 350 euro x Megawatt to almost 100. Great news right?
  • Governments are changing, in Italy we now have a right wing, technically anti-europe coalition in place.
  • USA not in recession, and probably the whole inflation taming is ok and there will almost be no recession as expected.
  • China might abandon the COVID 0 policies soon.

These are all major good points that are fueling the rally. As a pessimist/realist I do not think that we are out of the woods yet.

  • Yes gas prices are down, but that’s a simple demand/supply effect, with storages full and less demand on the table prices are bound to come down. Europe started with storage pretty high when the war begun, and there was no supply cut until the summer, giving plenty of time for the stock to be refilled. 2023 is going to see a VERY DIFFERENT situation, potentially much more dramatic.
  • USA is still not in recession, but inflation is not really tamed. It is tamed because of the usage of the oil reserves that brought oil prices down prior to the elections in November, but from November strategic stocks must be replenished and this will drive oil prices up. And with them inflation. Are we sure the interest rates hikes are really over?
  • War is still there, China is looking at Taiwan like a cat looks at a mouse and Europe is still divided despite the fact that recent events surely brought it much more closer than it was before.

and still we have the huge amount of debt that needs to be repaid, inflation “helps” under this point of view, but sooner or later that effect goes away.

In short, I believe that there is still some downside to be had, and that’s why I am selling some marginal positions in order to raise some cash. Hopefully I can deploy that cash soon, but maybe I am totally wrong and we are in a new secular rally…

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