July 2022


A General Overview

This month we had our “second” spot of holidays. This time at the seaside in the March region. We decided to try out something that we never did before, i.e. go to one of these “organized villages” where there are a bunch of services like, kids activities, night shows, pools and so on and so forth.

Well, to be honest I did not like it, we ended up paying a lot for services that were not useful to us (kids are too little still), or that we could not enjoy (nightlife it’s totally out of the question at this present moment). There were some nice activities (pools mostly), but all in all we could have done better if we rented a simple apartment.

ANYHOW, an holiday is an holiday, so no complaints there. The sea as nice, my restaurant research is still pretty sound, and all in all it was a change of scenery from superhot Florence.

I cannot say that me and my wife actually rested, I have a feeling that this is not going to happen for quite some time still, but you cannot have it all immediately I guess.

I am also working on the new course in September, lots of things to do and research still, but I hope that this time I can get to the start of the course with almost 100% of the work “done”. Didn’t manage that last semester and I hated it.

LH FUND

Explanation of terminology and graphs is HERE.

Let’s see the numbers:

MonthTRYTERNYYoCForex
31 Dec 20140.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
31 Dec 2015-3.33%1.22%-0.13%-1.00%
31 Dec 20167.06%1.14%1.16%-4.35%
31 Dec 20179.94%1.04%2.64%-5.94%
31 Dec 20183.28%1.24%2.70%-3.53%
31 Dec 201923.50%1.35%2.72%-1.40%
31 Dec 202015.76%1.28%2.70%-7.60%
31 Dec 202137.13%1.35%2.69%-2.05%
Jan 202235.83%1.34%2.61%-2.75%
Feb 202235.70%1.33%2.63%0.45%
Mar 202240.68%1.32%2.64%0.19%
Apr 202241.87%1.31%2.65%4.09%
May 202241.54%1.32%2.72%2.06%
Jun 202234.62%1.47%2.63%3.47%
Jul 202239.94%1.46%2.63%6.32%
LH Portfolio Milestones + Monthly current year

TR is increasing (vs. previous month) – 500bps, lots of movements on this metric recently!

YTER is decreasing (vs. previous month) – 1bps, every little counts!

Net Yearly YoC is stable (vs. previous month) – no change, not a great result but better than getting some negative numbers here…

Forex is better (vs. previous month) – The rally in the dollar keeps going, aided by the GBP

Dividends and Options

Income this month was 953 Euro

Dividends accounted for 1197 Euro (+11.25% vs 2021) and Options ended up with a -244 Euro score (-449% vs 2021).

Dividends

Very good work again, dividends are what matters to this portfolio, to see them grow is great!

Options

Couple of bad trades, that I needed to roll. This month is bad, but I expect a much better August and year end to recoup this result.

DCA/Increased Positions

Bought 100 GOLD @ 15.50 USD

Bought to cover an option gone bad, but I had a plan to increase this stock, technically I have 100 more pieces to buy (if the price goes even lower), but I am not dying to do that to be honest. Will wait for a comeback to sell Covered Calls, pretty much like I did already in spetember.

New Positions – Sold Position

Nothing to report

Financial Conclusions

July marked a strong inversion in the trend that we saw recently, markets recovered 10% more or less in a month, not small feat. Bear markets do not always see falling numbers, they also see strong and fast recoveries, without inverting the general trend though.

Has anything changed since June? War is still there, more tensions are arising in China and Middle East. Europe is in a political crisis, at least in the major constituents.

Oil has pulled back, but US reserves are getting depleted to a point where they might hit the “safety zone” limit soon.

Rates are rising on the assumption that inflation will go down, surely, thanks to the oil pullback there will be some effects, but I feel that we are very far from a stabilized low inflation like we had before. As a matter of fact the dovish members of the FED are talking about rising rates in 2023 too, despite popular belief that after September rates are likely to be cut again.

I still see a bumpy September/October, a good November (US elections) and a bad start of 2023. How bad I would not be able to know, but surely not as easy as all central banks seem to want to make people believe. If recession is coming, and it will come, I believe it will be pretty dire, too much debt to clear, it won’t be a walk in the park to get out of it for some countries (Italy first).

I keep myself on the sidelines, to be honest apart from few stocks I do not see any value in the present market.

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