September 2018 Update

img_20180930_195749General Comment

Here we are, September has gone by, and yet another update of the LH Portfolio.

University started in full swing, that means that I had to start teaching once more. The job is quite nice I like the interaction with students and the subjects that I am doing, but as this is the first time that I teach this specific course (Merchandising) I still feel a lot of pressure before each class. Anyhow, so far so good.

I even managed to go back to Paris (with the school), beautiful city that I didn’t go back to in many years.

Markets are nice and easy on the other side of the ocean, where despite all the political mess that Trump is creating it seems that there is only one direction for the stock market, up and upper!

In the old continent things are a bit different, with lots of Brexit pressure on one side and the Italian budget woes on the other. Both are depressing the markets quite a bit, opening chances for some interesting trades, if only I’d be more liquid…

We are entering a couple of months that I believe are going to shake the financial world a little, and to cap it all off we will have QE in Europe that will be stopped in December.

LH FUND

Explanation of terminology and graphs is HERE.

Let’s see the numbers:

Month TR YTER NYYoC Forex
11.15 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
12.15 -3.33% 1.22% -0.13% -1.00%
12.16 7.06% 1.14% 1.16% -4.35%
12.17 9.94% 1.04% 2.64% -5.94%
1.18 9.06% 1.07% 2.66% -7.40%
2.18 6.13% 1.06% 2.66% -7.95%
3.18 5.85% 1.04% 2.81% -7.21%
4.18 9.02% 1.03% 2.90% -6.07%
5.18 8.89% 1.36% 2.68% -4.42%
6.18 9.16% 1.35% 2.65% -4.91%
7.18 10.60% 1.34% 2.67% -4.74%
8.18 10.33% 1.31% 2.70% -4.50%
9.18 10.53% 1.29% 2.80% -3.89%

Net Yearly YoC is increasing (vs. previous month) – Another increase, another step towards the 3% target that I have set for 2018. It will be a close call this year, but so far so good! 

TR is increasing (vs. previous month) – Despite a downturn in Europe numbers in USA got better and all in all TR is growing.

Forex is getting better (vs. previous month) – Dollar keeps getting stronger and the pound managed to claw back a few decimals on rumours that Brexit agreements are just around the corner.

Dividends and Options

September managed to get an overall growth of 4.7% vs last year. This is a major success, despite the very low number, because last year my option trading was in a very aggressive mode and I was making a lot more from options that I am doing now. As a result beating last year numbers is simply great, means that dividends are churning really nicely.

September closed with a 2004 Euro result.

Dividends accounted 1345 Euro (+35% vs.2017) and Options ended up with a 659 Euro (-27% vs 2017).

A month above 2000 euro is a great success, so no complaints there. Dividends are growing in a very strong and consistent way, the core action of the LH Portfolio is all there and the aim is to create a constant growth year over year. I am curious to see what will be the growth at the end of the year on dividends. Options are under last year, but this is totally expected. I am going to use all of the gains that I am making from options to roll bad positions and eventually sell in loss stocks to buy them back again at a lower price, I will explain that in a later post.

List of Options closed in August
Screen Shot 2018-10-07 at 18.21.53.png
DCA/Increased Positions

Bought 100 EBR:ABI @79.00 EUR

Ab Inbev is the first beer producer in the world, last year merged with SAB Miller to create a huge conglomerate. Since I have got in the stock things have been going quite bad, at least for the stock. I did not see any alarming news on this company, but it’s clear that the market doesn’t favour it, and the integration with Miller is probably bringing results that are not in line with expectations. Got in again as it touched -20% on my tally, but price has been going down after that. Will see what is the position in a couple of months, I still believe that they can do well.

New Positions – Sold Positions

 

None to report

 

Options Plays

Nothing to report


Conclusions

I hear a lot of talks about a possible recession, it seems that general opinion is now agreeing on the fact that everything will at least slow down. I am not sure what to think, looking outside I cannot spot signs of negativity, but I agree that the growth that we saw last 3 years is not going to be replicated. Interest rates are on the rise and that is putting a LOT of pressure on the LH portfolio, as most of my stocks are defensive and they tend to suffer from an high cost of money.

I considering taking “benefits” on some positions in order to have a bit more of cash, as well as letting Call Options that are ITM (in the money) expire to sell the stocks. As usual each situation will be assessed separately.

Life will change quite radically for me in December when my firstborn is “due” to arrive in the family, sometimes I wonder if that will affect the way I am investing and all…

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4 thoughts on “September 2018 Update

  1. Complimenti per la bellissima notizia che hai dato in coda al post!
    È probabile che i listini rifiatino un po’. Stanno crescendo (a livello globale) da tantissimi anni. Io sto gradatamente aumentando la liquidità in attesa di occasioni interessanti.
    L’economia mondiale dovrebbe rallentare. Per adesso la recessione sembra scongiurata (almeno sentendo gli analisti ma anche guardandosi attorno).
    Le incertezze non mancano, quindi calma e sangue freddo!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Eh grazie! Non hai idea di quanto sia stressato ma diciamo che va bene esserlo (penso)! 🙂
      Per i mercati tendo ad essere d’accordo, sono certo che delle opportunità possono aprirsi all’orizzonte a breve, e sicuramente la crescita vista finora dovrebbe essere meno marcata. Come sempre vigili e pronti a muoversi, anche se per adesso ho poche “cartucce” da sparare…

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Hey Stal, Congratulations on the forthcoming happy event! The new family member may not have much impact on your investing strategy but will have a HUGE impact on your life. Hope all goes well in December and looking forward to hearing more.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Ciao DIY, thanks for the message and hopefully the impact will not be toooooooo traumatic 🙂 Will surely post some updates on the newborn too, thought I’d need a totally separate blog to write half of the things that already happened since we learnt we were pregnant!

      Like

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